CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-11-27T20:12:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-11-27T20:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27895/-1
CME Note: Halo CME centered towards the east in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and after a data gap from 2023-11-27T17:53Z-23:53Z in STEREO A COR2. Source eruption can be seen starting around 2023-11-27T18:19Z in SDO AIA 193 and is best characterized by an EUV wave, dimming, and post eruptive arcades. Associated with a C3.8 class flare from an unnumbered region around N20E15. The arrival signature (likely of the combined front of this CME and of the 2023-11-27T23:48Z CME) is characterized by a sudden amplification of magnetic field from 4 nT to 13 nT (and eventually to 15 nT), with Bz component reaching -13 nT . Accompanied by a sharp jump in solar wind speed from under 350 to 450 km/s, in ion density to over 20 particles/cc and in temperature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-11-30T23:29Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-11-30T18:20Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.66667 - 6.33333
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: 26.38 hour(s)
Difference: 5.15 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2023-11-29T21:06Z
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